The sector weathered the market volatility over the last few years, and as a result, has come out looking stronger and more adaptable to moving markets. This in turn is creating real opportunities for private capital.
The landscape for the sector looked very different 12–18 months ago. Inflation had been elevated and construction costs had reached all-time highs. The industry had come through record rainfall in some Australian states, and 13 interest rate increases from the RBA dampened the investment environment. The industry survived all these pressures and even flourished with stronger borrower profiles and balance sheets.
Today, the real estate market is looking solid. Stabilising construction costs, easing interest rates, normalising migration, and improved policy coordination are paving the way for renewed capital deployment and stronger investment sentiment. The housing shortage is widely acknowledged, and with rising developer confidence, the pathways to accelerating supply are becoming clearer.
On the other hand, global volatility remains heightened. The Australian stock market fell 1.5% in April (it has since rallied) on the back of Trump tariffs, new geopolitical relationships are being developed on the back of USA isolationism and global conflicts are creating ongoing uncertainty. We believe the private credit sector remains well protected to these pressures.
Private credit continues to grow in popularity, with significant capital inflows from Asia seeking exposure to Australian real estate debt markets. This demand is driven by the compelling risk-adjusted returns as loans are structured with less leverage and high lender protections. This appetite is met by strong demand for capital, with a funding gap left by traditional lenders, a dynamic that has not gone unnoticed on the global stage, leading to a clear growth pathway.
According to MSCI Real Capital Analytics, Q1 2025 transaction volumes in the Australian commercial property market reached $6.9bn, the highest Q1 total since 2022. This has been mirrored in Wingate’s deal pipeline, which is currently sitting at approximately $2bn.
Wingate remains well-positioned to capitalise on this shift, leveraging local and now global expertise, long-standing developer relationships, and a proven track record in structured real estate finance.